Red Herring Analysis

Today I'd like to share this space with Luis from: The Blog From Another Dimension.

The following excerpt is only a small portion of the article, SOTU: SameOld, Tired, Untrue Speech (Part Two), which you will find at: http://www.blogd.com/archives/001678.html.

Luis very aptly states what I've been telling folks all along: Bragging on the improvements of a failure is not the same as creating an overwhelming success.

Let's follow Luis' example and do some careful analysis of the whole enchilada before we allow ourselves to be gulled by deception.
Chae

(The italics are a direct quote from President Bush's State Of The Union address; followed by Luis' analysis.)

Our economy is healthy and vigorous, and growing faster than other major industrialized nations. In the last two-and-a-half years, America has created 4.6 million new jobs -- more than Japan and the European Union combined.

This statement is misleading in many ways. First of all, it's selective editing. Bush only mentions job growth since jobs started growing, and 'forgot' to mention the first three years when jobs were consistently lost. Over Bush's whole presidency, job growth was only 2.1 million jobs, or an average 35,000 per month--anemic at best. Also, compared to recovery in jobs after the start of a recession, this is the slowest "recovery" in the past half century, by a very large margin. Bill Clinton added 22 million jobs in eight years--even taking Bush's claim of 4.6 million new jobs, he's got just two more years to create 17.4 million more jobs and he'll be even. Think he'll do it?

Second, the type of jobs Bush has been creating has been dramatically different. Under Bush, we've seen job growth in lower-paying, benefit-poor employment--hardly "vigorous." Under Clinton, there were a lot more well-paying jobs created; under Bush, most Americans have been sliding down to poorer and poorer levels.

And third, the comparison he made about other countries was bogus, relying on chance and statistics more than actual economic performance. It does not factor in population growth in America versus decline in Europe in Japan; it takes advantage of a temporary slump in Europe, as well as the effects of a long-term recession in Japan. Saying that you're doing better than two other poor performers at a bad time is not an impressive claim.

In short, Bush is using smoke and mirrors to paint a rosier picture than exists, but you can hardly expect him to admit to failure, can you?